pumping iron
I didn't know I could squat 230 lbs. more than once. Hell, I didn't even know I could do it once. It turns out I can do it several times. I will regret it tomorrow; I was having trouble walking down flights of stairs after my trip to the gym; I can only imagine what going up them will be like tomorrow. I hate legs day; I always skip a few days when it's legs day because I hate being a cripple the following day, and then I have to skip a couple days afterward because.... yep, I'm a cripple.
slacker
I'm way behind on my goals for this year; all the drinking and two jobs takes the fight out of me. (I am going to stop screwing around/being a pissy bitch and get to work.) I'm comfortably 6-tabling the 6.50 turbos on PokerStars; my bankroll would be high enough for me to tackle the PartyPoker $11s, or maybe even the Stars $16 turbos, but my brother has been playing a lot of poker on my account. He kept losing and giving me cash, which I would then turn around and use on beer and stuff. ("hey, there's money in this wallet!") So I continue to comfortably 6-table the 6.50s, leaving me far short of my goal of being on the Party $22s by March. I doubt I could 6-table those, but I feel confident in my ability to 4-table the 22s, if I have a roll that won't disappear after two losing sets (like last time).
east on 2, north on 59
I went to Seven Clans Casino in Thief River Falls with my brother last weekend for his 18th birthday. (no link; their website is an atrocity of misinformation and broken links) They're running $45 satellites to the Heartland Poker Tour, the biggest poker tournament (?) in the Midwest, to be held on April 20th. I'm seriously considering entering; the caliber of player at the cash game makes me fairly confident that I can win a 1-table (10 man) tournament to gain entry to the Tour.
Ah, the cash game. Seven Clans runs a 2-10 spread-limit game between 4 pm and 4 am, Thursday through Monday. The dealers are engaging, chatty, and funny (if you think rednecks are funny). The games are incredibly, edibly soft. I cashed in $150 and was a bit surprised to see myself sitting down with the big stack, and not just by 20 or 50 or so. I'd say 2/3 the people at the table were my age or younger, not counting me or my brother. They all cashed in with $75 or less. Our table opened, and I was treated to an hour of watching bets be raised and then capped, only to see showdowns between middle pair and bottom pair, bottom pair and high card, and (I swear I am not making this up) high card vs. high card on an all-overcard board. I was itching to engage the hideous play, but my cards were stink-nasty, and the couple of times I found myself with suited connectors, the boy in front of me (he looked like his 18th birthday was about five years away) raised to 10 pre-flop. Frustration settled in, and after about 45 minutes of folding, I found myself heads-up in middle position with a fellow in his 30s in the cutoff after we both limped in. The board came A-x-A, and I looked down at K high and fired off a bet. He called, and the turn card was a random rag, so I fired the second barrel, another bet about half the size of the pot. He called, and we went to the river--another rag. I checked, and he checked, and then he turned over the third A. Defeat feels a little like drowning in air.
Luckily, at this point, the other table broke up, and several new people sat down-- not enough to make a full table. I volunteered to switch, as I had not come all this way to lose a spread-limit game at the same table as my lil' bro. My chipstack was almost halved; I was down to $86, and I had entered the battle with the intention that if I ever blinded down to 50 or less, I was cashing out. The last 50 was to be used in dominating situations only, to pump the size of the pot. Lo and behold, such a situation happened on the first hand at the new table. I limped in from the small blind with 45 of hearts, with one limper before me and the big blind checking. Flop comes K45 rainbow. EP checks, I minbet, and the big blind raises to 6. EP folds, I frown a bit, study my cards intently, and raise to 12. BB calls, and the turn is a 7. I bet 6, and the BB raises to 16. I pretend to be worried for a moment and call. River comes -- 2. I bet 10, he raises to 20, I raise to 30, he raises to 60, I raise to 70, and he puts me all-in. I call my last few chips, and he turns over KT. (I expected KQ, or possibly KJ/KA, and had thought briefly about KK/AA/44/55, but decided that he wasn't being aggressive enough for a monster like that.) I show my two pair, and he is furious as I rake in the big pile of chips and tip the dealer $2 (one large chip) for his trouble. That set the stage for the remainder of the evening; despite seeing only the premium hands AK offsuit once, AJ offsuit once, and no pocket pair higher than 99, I left with $184 in profit. GG me. I bought 3am breakfast buffet for myself and my brother (who also finished up on the night), and we went back to our room, sleeping in and leaving around noon the next day.
that guy can't even spell poker
Here's the last hand of a $3.30 rebuy I played tonight.. this is almost 3 hours in; I had been hanging around 25k in chips for a while after burning up my table in the first hour (cashed in for $12.30, including the add-on), and then i lost a bunch of chips when my AQ made second pair on a K high board and I couldn't put it down (incidentally, i lost to KQ). this was the next hand i played, two or three orbits later.
anyway, enough setup. here goes.
PokerStars Game #4234455562: Tournament #20792986, Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/03/09 - 22:52:44 (ET)
Table '20792986 188' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: MAR108 (50906 in chips)
Seat 2: wsimmobr (10095 in chips)
Seat 3: #1 Big Cat (46703 in chips)
Seat 4: hakatak (9430 in chips)
Seat 5: trig358 (57472 in chips)
Seat 6: Rob Cunning (58622 in chips)
Seat 7: QUIGGY (14780 in chips)
Seat 8: grm69 (86428 in chips)
Seat 9: garyak (53070 in chips)
MAR108: posts the ante 50
wsimmobr: posts the ante 50
#1 Big Cat: posts the ante 50
hakatak: posts the ante 50
trig358: posts the ante 50
Rob Cunning: posts the ante 50
QUIGGY: posts the ante 50
grm69: posts the ante 50
garyak: posts the ante 50
#1 Big Cat: posts small blind 400
hakatak: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Ks Kd] (hooray, kings in the big blind)
trig358: folds
Rob Cunning: calls 800
QUIGGY: calls 800
grm69: folds
garyak: raises 4000 to 4800 (hooray, he'll call)
MAR108: folds
wsimmobr: folds
#1 Big Cat: folds
hakatak: raises 4580 to 9380 and is all-in
Rob Cunning: folds
QUIGGY: folds
garyak: calls 4580
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2d 9h]
*** TURN *** [Ts 2d 9h] [Qs]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 2d 9h Qs] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hakatak: shows [Ks Kd] (a pair of Kings)
garyak: shows [9d 9c] (three of a kind, Nines) (...doh.)
garyak collected 21210 from pot
I was so disgusted and so disappointed that I didn't even pound my desk or throw my hat. I just wilted a little in my chair, and dutifully posted my final hand in the official rebuy results thread on 2+2.
lucked out is one letter away from fucked out
Normally I've got plenty of fire and brimstone for losing a hand where I'm a 4:1 favorite for all my chips. However, I had played an $11 multi-table freezeout tournament earlier in the evening/simultaneously, and I think you'll agree that the occurrences therein are breathtakingly extraordinary... or at least extraordinarily unpleasant.
(legal disclaimer: the following is property of myself and PokerStars, and is not to be used for any purpose other than training and review.)
(other disclaimer: this part is pretty long, and somewhat difficult to read. I apologize, and believe it or not, I cleaned it up quite a bit already. The number contained within the ==== is the hand # of the tournament. 1=first hand, and so on. Good luck.)
Transcript for tournament #20792998 requested by hakatak ( el.dusto@gmail.com)
*********** # 1 **************
Level I (10/20) - 2006/03/09 - 21:35:00 (ET)
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Scorpion11 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (1500 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: martenmania (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: cook99 (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: jhr103 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (1500 in chips)
anticon: posts small blind 10
martenmania: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Kd Kh]
cook99 has timed out while disconnected
cook99: folds
cook99 is sitting out
loveulong: calls 20
I Stay High: folds
alde80: calls 20
jhr103: folds
hakatak: raises 80 to 100
Scorpion11: folds
anticon: folds
martenmania: folds
loveulong: calls 80
alde80: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [6h Td Ts]
loveulong: checks
alde80: checks
hakatak: bets 100
loveulong: raises 100 to 200
alde80: folds
hakatak: raises 200 to 400
loveulong: calls 200
*** TURN *** [6h Td Ts] [9h]
loveulong: checks
hakatak: checks
*** RIVER *** [6h Td Ts 9h] [8c]
loveulong: bets 300
hakatak: calls 300
*** SHOW DOWN ***
loveulong: shows [6d 6s] (a full house, Sixes full of Tens)
hakatak: mucks hand
loveulong collected 1730 from pot
cook99 is connected
cook99 has returned
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1730 | Rake 0
Board [6h Td Ts 9h 8c]
Seat 5: loveulong showed [6d 6s] and won (1730) with a full house, Sixes full of Tens
Seat 9: hakatak mucked [Kd Kh]
*********** # 2 **************
Level I (10/20) - 2006/03/09 - 21:36:44 (ET)
Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Scorpion11 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (1490 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: martenmania (1480 in chips)
Seat 4: cook99 (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (2430 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (1400 in chips)
Seat 8: jhr103 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (700 in chips)
martenmania: posts small blind 10
cook99: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Kc Kh] (that's right, KK back-to-back.)
loveulong: calls 20
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
jhr103: calls 20
hakatak: raises 80 to 100
Scorpion11: folds
anticon: folds
martenmania: folds
cook99: calls 80
loveulong: calls 80
jhr103: folds
*** FLOP *** [8s 6h 5c]
cook99: bets 20
loveulong: calls 20
hakatak: raises 100 to 120
cook99: calls 100
loveulong: folds
*** TURN *** [8s 6h 5c] [5s]
cook99: checks
hakatak: bets 120
cook99: calls 120
*** RIVER *** [8s 6h 5c 5s] [Jh]
cook99: bets 180
hakatak: raises 180 to 360 and is all-in
cook99: calls 180
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hakatak: shows [Kc Kh] (two pair, Kings and Fives)
cook99: shows [As 7c] (a pair of Fives)
hakatak collected 1550 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1550 | Rake 0
Board [8s 6h 5c 5s Jh]
Seat 4: cook99 (big blind) showed [As 7c] and lost with a pair of Fives
Seat 9: hakatak showed [Kc Kh] and won (1550) with two pair, Kings and Fives
I fold the next two hands preflop. Nothing to see there. Then...
*********** # 5 **************
Level I (10/20) - 2006/03/09 - 21:39:45 (ET)
Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Scorpion11 (710 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: martenmania (1470 in chips)
Seat 4: cook99 (1610 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (2280 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (1480 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (1400 in chips)
Seat 8: jhr103 (1510 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (1550 in chips)
I Stay High: posts small blind 10
alde80: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Td Ts]
jhr103: folds
hakatak: raises 60 to 80
Scorpion11: folds
anticon: raises 260 to 340
martenmania: folds
cook99: folds
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
hakatak: calls 260 (I considered pushing, but was afraid of overcards)
*** FLOP *** [4c Ad Jh]
hakatak: checks
anticon: bets 400 (hmm, I think I'm behind)
hakatak: folds
anticon collected 710 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 710 | Rake 0
Board [4c Ad Jh]
Seat 2: anticon collected (710)
Seat 9: hakatak folded on the Flop
*********** # 6 **************
Level I (10/20) - 2006/03/09 - 21:40:49 (ET)
Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Scorpion11 (710 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (1860 in chips)
Seat 3: martenmania (1470 in chips)
Seat 4: cook99 (1610 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (2280 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (1470 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (1380 in chips)
Seat 8: jhr103 (1510 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (1210 in chips)
alde80: posts small blind 10
jhr103: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Ah Kc]
hakatak: raises 60 to 80
Scorpion11: raises 630 to 710 and is all-in
anticon: folds
martenmania: folds
cook99: folds
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
jhr103: folds
hakatak: calls 630
*** FLOP *** [Qs Qh 9d]
*** TURN *** [Qs Qh 9d] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs Qh 9d 6h] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hakatak: shows [Ah Kc] (a pair of Queens)
Scorpion11: shows [Qc Kd] (three of a kind, Queens)
Scorpion11 collected 1450 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1450 | Rake 0
Board [Qs Qh 9d 6h Jh]
Seat 1: Scorpion11 showed [Qc Kd] and won (1450) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 9: hakatak showed [Ah Kc] and lost with a pair of Queens
...I folded the next 7 hands. So, seven hands later....
*********** # 14 **************
Level II (15/30) - 2006/03/09 - 21:48:51 (ET)
Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Scorpion11 (2500 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (5380 in chips)
Seat 3: martenmania (160 in chips)
Seat 4: alleyezonme0 (2155 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (2040 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (1605 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (1320 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (470 in chips)
I Stay High: posts small blind 15
alde80: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Kd Ks]
hakatak: raises 440 to 470 and is all-in
Scorpion11: folds
anticon: folds
martenmania: folds
alleyezonme0: folds
loveulong: folds
snowman9 is connected
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
hakatak collected 75 from pot
hakatak: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 75 | Rake 0
Seat 9: hakatak collected (75)
I fold the next 19 hands preflop. Nothing worth hearing about; there was an A6 unsuited and a KJ unsuited in there. By this point, I realize that as far as the tournament goes, I am no more alive than Terri Schiavo. (before or after they pulled her feeding tube.) I was paying more attention to the $3 rebuy, and I was badly tilted, but my logic went like this: I wanted to get into a hand with the short stacks and not the big stacks because the shorties would have much wider ranges. This looked like one of the only situations that would ever turn out that way.
*********** # 33 **************
Level IV (50/100) - 2006/03/09 - 22:06:32 (ET)
Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: morrent (2040 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (3360 in chips)
Seat 3: martenmania (490 in chips)
Seat 4: alleyezonme0 (180 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (2135 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (2070 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (4675 in chips)
Seat 8: snowman9 (1655 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (395 in chips)
snowman9: posts small blind 50
hakatak: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Ts 4s]
morrent: calls 100
anticon: folds
martenmania: raises 390 to 490 and is all-in
alleyezonme0: calls 180 and is all-in
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
snowman9: folds
hakatak: calls 295 and is all-in
morrent: calls 390
*** FLOP *** [7d Jh 2c]
*** TURN *** [7d Jh 2c] [Kc]
*** RIVER *** [7d Jh 2c Kc] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
morrent: shows [Ad 5d] (high card Ace)
martenmania: shows [9d Ah] (high card Ace - Nine kicker)
martenmania collected 190 from side pot-2
hakatak: shows [Ts 4s] (a pair of Fours)
hakatak collected 645 from side pot-1
alleyezonme0: shows [Qc Qs] (a pair of Queens)
alleyezonme0 collected 770 from main pot
*********** # 34 **************
Level IV (50/100) - 2006/03/09 - 22:07:41 (ET)
Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: morrent (1550 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (3360 in chips)
Seat 3: martenmania (190 in chips)
Seat 4: alleyezonme0 (770 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (2135 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (2070 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (4675 in chips)
Seat 8: snowman9 (1605 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (645 in chips)
hakatak: posts small blind 50
morrent: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Ad 3s]
anticon: folds
martenmania: raises 90 to 190 and is all-in
alleyezonme0: raises 580 to 770 and is all-in
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
snowman9: folds
hakatak: folds (hmm, this will turn out to be a mistake)
morrent: folds
*** FLOP *** [7s 3d Ac]
*** TURN *** [7s 3d Ac] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [7s 3d Ac 8h] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
martenmania: shows [Jh 7h] (three of a kind, Sevens)
alleyezonme0: shows [Tc 7c] (three of a kind, Sevens - lower kicker)
martenmania collected 530 from pot
...or not. (^_^) Here's the next and final hand for me, as I lose a coinflip that would have tripled me up:
*********** # 35 **************
Level IV (50/100) - 2006/03/09 - 22:08:42 (ET)
Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: morrent (1450 in chips)
Seat 2: anticon (3360 in chips)
Seat 3: martenmania (530 in chips)
Seat 4: alleyezonme0 (580 in chips)
Seat 5: loveulong (2135 in chips)
Seat 6: I Stay High (2070 in chips)
Seat 7: alde80 (4675 in chips)
Seat 8: snowman9 (1605 in chips)
Seat 9: hakatak (595 in chips)
morrent: posts small blind 50
anticon: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [8c Ah]
martenmania: folds
alleyezonme0: raises 480 to 580 and is all-in
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
snowman9: folds
hakatak: raises 15 to 595 and is all-in
morrent: folds
anticon: calls 495
*** FLOP *** [7h 3h Qd]
*** TURN *** [7h 3h Qd] [Kh]
*** RIVER *** [7h 3h Qd Kh] [Tc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
anticon: shows [5c 5s] (a pair of Fives)
hakatak: shows [8c Ah] (high card Ace)
anticon collected 30 from side pot
alleyezonme0: shows [4h 4d] (a pair of Fours)
anticon collected 1790 from main pot
...and there you have it. I can safely say that I have never before played a game where I've had pocket kings 3 times in 14 hands, much less with an AK and TT to go along with them. I can also safely say that some days, you're just not meant to win.
March 9, 2006
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3 comments:
Found your blog and have been discussing SnG situations for the last couple hours so figured I would shoot some comments on the hands you had posted.
Just a warning when I analyze HH's for people I am blunt, honest, and occasionly crude because if I worry about hurting peoples pride or feelings I won't get my point across nearly as clearly and it won't do any good.
Hand #1
Dealt to hakatak [Kc Kh] (that's right, KK back-to-back.)
loveulong: calls 20
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
jhr103: calls 20
hakatak: raises 80 to 100
Scorpion11: folds
anticon: folds
martenmania: folds
cook99: calls 80
loveulong: calls 80
jhr103: folds
*** FLOP *** [8s 6h 5c]
cook99: bets 20
loveulong: calls 20
hakatak: raises 100 to 120
<<< There is over 300 in the pot pre-flop and after they bet its nearing 400; and you raised 100 more? I'm not really sure what you are trying to do with that tiny of a raise into a big pot. This means anyone calling with a 7 is playing the pot correctly and you are the one making the mistake. There are a lot of chips in this pot make them pay to draw out on you. >>>
cook99: calls 100
loveulong: folds
*** TURN *** [8s 6h 5c] [5s]
cook99: checks
hakatak: bets 120
<<< Now the pot is over 500 and you bet 120 into it. Small bets into large pots on coordinated boards are a huge recipe for disaster. You are giving people the odds to call with their draws and bust you. >>>
Hand #2
Seat 9: hakatak (1550 in chips)
I Stay High: posts small blind 10
alde80: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Td Ts]
jhr103: folds
hakatak: raises 60 to 80
<<< I raise here 0 times out of 100 and can't think of anyone who does. You are UTG+1 on lvl 1 of a SnG I raise 5 hands here AA KK QQ JJ AK and maybe AQs. >>>
Scorpion11: folds
anticon: raises 260 to 340
martenmania: folds
cook99: folds
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
hakatak: calls 260 (I considered pushing, but was afraid of overcards)
<<< Pushing is 100% purebred Donk. Calling is very bad. You just put in about 25% of your stack out of position and you need to hit a set.
This is a case of looking at your cards and not at your situation. Did you consider pushing because you have a pre-conceived notion that pocket 10's are a good hand? I suspect you also called thinking "I can't fold 10's thats weak/tight and im a good poker player".
Here is an exercise think of the last 10 times you re-raised an UTG+1 raise on lvl 1 of a SnG. Now how many of those times were you behind pocket 10's?
If you are playing correctly your answer should be 0 and that should help you realize the point im making.>>>
Hand #3
I Stay High: posts small blind 15
alde80: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Kd Ks]
hakatak: raises 440 to 470 and is all-in
<<< The blinds are 15/30 and you pushed all in for 470 UTG. The only move worse than this is folding. I'm actually really curious to hear your thinking on this one because its either going to be scary bad or very good and a sign of good pokerthink.>>>
Hand #4
Seat 9: hakatak (395 in chips)
snowman9: posts small blind 50
hakatak: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [Ts 4s]
morrent: calls 100
anticon: folds
martenmania: raises 390 to 490 and is all-in
alleyezonme0: calls 180 and is all-in
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
snowman9: folds
hakatak: calls 295 and is all-in
<<< I don't think you need me to tell you how horrible this is. Come on man you have 10-4 ignore the fact that its suited because I guarantee you fold if it isn't :). This is a horrible hand you have 3BB's left if you fold save them for +EV pushes. >>>
Hand #5
Seat 9: hakatak (595 in chips)
morrent: posts small blind 50
anticon: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hakatak [8c Ah]
martenmania: folds
alleyezonme0: raises 480 to 580 and is all-in
loveulong: folds
I Stay High: folds
alde80: folds
snowman9: folds
hakatak: raises 15 to 595 and is all-in
<<< Pushing if it is folded to you in this spot is +EV calling all in is very -EV and made me throw up a little in my mouth. This is a HUGE leak. With 6BB's you are hardly in desperation mode and you should be picking your spots to steal blinds or calling in situations where you have a large edge NOT calling all in with hands like A8. When I see people make calls like that I often wonder if they are just bored or something.>>>
I have no idea of your BR size but anything under 50 buy-ins is reckless and almost guarantees you will go broke at some point, if not this level then when you move up and haven't learned it the hard way yet.
Also congrats on your score at the casino!
We should make it down there on a tourney night sometime.
Raises from this early of a position during lvl's 1 and 2 will almost always get called by at least 1 person behind you. I don't know the percentage offhand but I think its around 65-70% of the time a J Q K or A will hit the flop and you will be out of position with overcards on the board which is a bad/trouble spot.
During the first couple levels of a SnG you want to be basically nutpeddling getting the donks to pay you off when you have good hands not trying to bluff or bully people who aren't going to fold often enough. This is the exact opposite of the later levels when you need to be super aggressive because the blinds are now huge and important and people are more willing to fold as you approach the money.
The largest debate among SnG pro's that I've ever seen is actually playing JJ UTG or UTG+1 on lvl's 1 and 2 of a SnG. There are some great players who swear by limping here but I think you see it less and less now and im firmly in the raise category.
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